Climate Change Background Climate Change in the Future
One of the difficulties in addressing climate change is that we can never predict exactly what the future will bring. Normally, when scientists observe a pattern (e.g.: increasing temperatures), they make a hypothesis about what causes the pattern (increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses is causing global warming), and then manipulate that factor to see whether they get the predicted result (if we decrease the concentration of greenhouse gasses, the climate will cool). Because there is only one planet Earth, we can’t simply manipulate the system and see how it responds (although in a sense, we are).
Instead, scientists create models to better understand our climate, and predict how it will react under various future scenarios. These general circulation models (GCM) are complex, incorporating information on ocean currents, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, global ice cover, and solar activity, along with the interactions and feedbacks among these factors. These models are then tested by seeing how well they predict the actual climate conditions observed so far from the past to the present. This provides information on how well the model is working and where it can be improved. As scientists learn more about these global systems, they can adjust and add new factors to the models to improve its accuracy, precision, and resolution.
Various models use a range of assumptions and incorporate uncertainty into their models in different ways, but most predict similar trends. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a global group of climate scientists assembled to study the question, projects a global temperature increase of 2-10°F in the next 100 years. This would create a climate in Boston similar to the current climate of somewhere from Richmond, VA to Atlanta, GA. While some might welcome the thought of milder winters, this would also lead to worsening air quality, possible introduction of new diseases to the region, and dramatic changes to the local ecosystems. Our current forests are not adapted to this predicted climate and would be stressed and eventually disappear or shift north. Some of the familiar regional traditions and economies related to skiing, fall foliage, maple syrup, current agricultural crops would become a thing of the past.
They also project an overall increase in global precipitation. Although these models cannot tell us exactly what the future climate will look like, there is general agreement that humans are contributing to a rising global temperature. Despite these uncertainties the public (you) will need to consider whether we should risk the likely consequences of doing nothing. In the past when climate change affected societies, migration to uninhabited parts of the globe with favorable conditions occured. With today's exploding population, and the world mostly occupied, that solution is not longer practical.
New England states have taken the lead in addressing climate change. There has been progress through the development of the New England Governors and Canadian Eastern Premeriers Climate Action plans and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.
Climate Change Today
