The dwarf cinquefoil is one of a number of rare, endemic species in the Whites, like the White Mountain Artic and the White Mountain Fritillary butterflies. These species thrive in alpine communities whose survival is contingent on the cool, rugged conditions of the east’s loftiest peaks. AMC researchers believe that the alpine sedge cushion tussock and snowbank communities, which include showy goldenrod, lilies, and moss plants that bloom into white, hanging bell-shaped flowers, may be at the most risk since they are very dependent on specific microclimate conditions.

Already, researchers are discovering changes in the mountains’ temperatures and snowpack that could have severe effects. A 2005 study by the Mount Washington Observatory found that temperatures had significantly increased by 0.5 degrees on the top of Mount Washington between 1935 and 2003 (temperatures tend to shift less at higher elevations than lower elevations during periods of climatic change, according to Cameron Wake, a paleoclimatologist at the University of New Hampshire). In addition, data compiled by AMC on snowpack levels at Pinkham Notch, North Conway, and several huts indicate a stark downward trend in snow depths between 1949 and 2001.

Wake has studied the effects of climate change for more than 20 years. He says certain areas that typically see a lot of snow could be more affected by climate change because of a phenomenon known as the ice-albedo positive feedback loop: The white color of snow reflects the sun’s rays, so when less snow falls, the earth absorbs more heat from the sun, which warms the earth even faster. 

“Simplistically, we could make the conclusion that as it warms, the growing seasons would be more favorable [for other plants] and these alpine systems would disappear,” says AMC’s Kimball. “The reason we know that explanation is too simplistic is that where treeline stops and the alpine tundra starts varies by about 2,000 feet in elevation, on both the Presidential and Baxter Peak ranges.” In short, the alpine area is controlled by more than temperature and elevation; as or more important is the exposure to frequent clouds and wind. While we know that temperatures are increasing, we don’t know exactly how they will affect these other factors that are essential for the survival of our region’s alpine areas.

The summit of Mount Washington is famously ensconced in fog some part of more than 300 days each year. While this may obstruct hikers’ views, it is also essential to the alpine habitat. Cloud fog can freeze on tiny trees in what is called rime ice. When the wind picks up, it breaks the frozen branches. The forest can’t handle this type of battering, but if the cloud cover rises due to climate change, says Kimball, then the forest could overgrow the alpine zone. According to a 2003 Yale University study, which compiled data from 24 airport weather stations across the Appalachian region, the cloud deck—the level of the clouds—has risen significantly in the northeastern states in the last three decades. In another recent study, Kimball and AMC biologist Doug Weihrauch concluded that climate change that affects clouds, wind, precipitation, and ice loading at higher altitudes will strongly affect the treeline boundary—and their ongoing research with the University of New Hampshire and the Mount Washington Observatory is looking at whether cloud exposure in the mountains is now changing as well.

Looking Ahead: A World Adapting to Climate Change
Ongoing research may shed light on likely scenarios to unfold in our lifetimes and beyond, but there’s no way we can know exactly what the White Mountains will look like when our children’s children are learning to carry a backpack. Studies of ancient sediments taken from lakes throughout New England more than 10 years ago revealed that many alpine plants survived the warmer Hypsithermal Period. Occurring some 10,000 years ago, this period included more than 500 years of weather more than four degrees warmer than it is now in New England and much of the Northern Hemisphere. While plants at lower elevations were quickly replaced by warmer climate species, many alpine plants, surprisingly, survived. AMC researchers are trying to figure out why.

Perhaps Mount Washington’s visibility and vulnerability will help raise enough awareness of climate change to save it and the other alpine areas of New England. Or perhaps the fragile ecosystem of this majestic peak will be transformed as a result of our actions, just as its panoramic views have been transformed by our city lights.

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