March 5, 2024
Winter surfers in New Hampshire’s Seacoast Region. El Niño coupled with climate change could mean warmer winters but a higher likelihood of extreme snow events in certain areas. Photo by John Walsh, AMC Photo Contest.
If you’ve been following along with the wacky winter weather this year, you may have stumbled across the term “El Niño.” You know it plays a role in the weather. But what is it and does it do? Weather is always variable and seems impacted by so many things.
Scientists use long-term monitoring and data collection to better understand historic and current weather. Their actions help us know what the weather is going to look like now and in the face of ongoing climate change. Read on to understand a key winter weather point this year — El Niño — and how seasonal and other changes may impact this year’s snow.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate pattern, characterized by unusually warm surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Beginning around December (“El Niño” means “Little Boy” in Spanish, a nod to Christmas) and lasting nine to twelve months, El Niño has a big impact on global ocean temperatures, ocean currents, and weather from Australia to South America. Typically, these events happen in two-to-seven-year intervals, but it’s not a predictable cycle.
How does El Niño impact North America’s East Coast?
An El Niño’s impact isn’t guaranteed, but they usually have certain effects. In the Southeast El Niño winters bring more moisture and precipitation, as well as more flooding. In the Northeast El Niño typically means it’s dryer and warmer.
Dan Stone, AMC Photo Contest.
What does this mean for snow?
In the Southeast, more moisture means more snow! However, the temperature must be cold enough for the snow to form and fall, otherwise moisture translates as rain and potential flooding. In the Northeast, El Niño events typically bring low snow years, since the temperatures are warmer, and there’s less moisture. In fact, the Northeast can see anywhere from 2 to 10 less inches of snowfall than average in El Niño years.
How does climate change factor in?
It’s no secret that the entire U.S. is trending towards warmer and less snowy winters because of climate change. This doesn’t mean it will never snow, or that big snowstorms won’t happen. But over time the average snowfall we’re seeing is going down. Even if there’s less snow, there may be more extreme snow events. Warmer air holds more moisture, so when it does get cold enough to snow, all that moisture in the air comes down at once. The recent nor’easter which canceled over 1,000 flights and buried areas from West Virginia to Massachusetts in snow is an example of this.
Is there an upshot?
Weather is complicated! That said, there are historic trends we can use to untangle the changes we’re experiencing. El Niño brings warmer, dryer conditions to the Northeast, which is already warming and experiencing less snow, more ice, and more weather “whiplash” due to climate change. In the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, El Niño brings more moisture and precipitation, which can mean more snow if it’s cold enough. However, climate change is impacting those regions too, with warmer winters and less snow.
El Niño coupled with climate change could mean warmer winters with less snow, but a higher likelihood of extreme snow events in certain areas.
We cannot control when we’ll experience an El Niño year, or how long it will last. Scientists are still studying the El Niño event, trying to learn more about its far-reaching impacts and how it couples with climate change.
“[With climate] it’s not about the change, it’s about the rate of change,” AMC Research Director Sarah Nelson explains.
‘Whiplash’ temperature and precipitation make it difficult to prepare for flooding or storm events, kill agricultural crops, and upset plant and animal life cycles. Add El Niño effects on top of climate change, and we see unpredictable weather that impacts both humans and the rest of the natural world.
Changing weather can be daunting, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to be done. Join AMC’s Conservation Action Network to learn more about conservation initiatives and how you can support work from the local to federal level in climate and beyond. You can also get involved by contributing to Community Snow Observations, which allows climate scientists to access more data thanks to the help of community scientists.